The Playbook
How to win from here.
The study shows what commentators say went wrong in 2024. This page turns that into twelve principles for what to do next. Each one rests on themes from the study, said on the record by voices from the left, the center and the right.
About this playbook
From what went wrong to what to do next.
Each principle has two parts. The diagnosis summarizes what commentators in the study said. The prescription is our recommendation for the next cycle. Under each one we list the study themes it draws on, so you can read the quotes behind it.
The principles are in no particular order, and they work together.
Principle 01
Understand the relationship.
Diagnosis
Commentators say Democrats talk down to voters. They describe a party that lectures people about their own problems, answers complaints about prices with good economic data, and dismisses their worries about inflation, in one critic's words, as a 'vibecession.' The Daily Show and others say the party lost credibility by warning that Trump threatened democracy, then treating his return to power as routine.
Prescription
Start by listening. Acknowledge what voters are going through before asking for their trust or their vote. No message will work until that relationship is repaired.
Themes in the study
- Condescending Communication & Cultural Disrespect
Commentators say Democrats lecture voters instead of persuading them.
- Condescending and Dismissive Tone
Commentators say Democrats and their allies argued with voters about the economy instead of agreeing that times were hard.
- Failure to Acknowledge Pain
The complaint here is about empathy. Commentators say Democrats never showed voters they understood what inflation was costing them, while insisting the economy was doing great.
- Credibility Crisis & Inconsistency
Commentators say Democrats lost credibility. Harvard's Program on Constitutional Government argues Biden failed to deliver the return to normal he promised in 2020.
Principle 02
Run an always-on campaign.
Diagnosis
Voices across the spectrum say Democrats stopped knocking on doors. They say the campaign poured money into broadcast TV, neglected canvassing and voter registration, and let Republicans out-organize it face to face in swing states. Others say the party took its base for granted and showed up only to ask for votes.
Prescription
Stay present between elections. Fund year-round organizing, listening and service in the communities the party wants to represent, so each campaign starts with relationships already in place instead of field offices that open in the summer and close in November.
Themes in the study
- Decaying Grassroots & Organizing
Voices across the spectrum say Democrats stopped knocking on doors.
- Ineffective Tactical Execution & Resource Allocation
Commentators fault how the campaign spent its money and time.
- Strategic Complacency & Flawed Outreach
Commentators say Democrats grew complacent. David Pakman and Duke political scientists fault the 'coalition of the ascendant' idea that population change would deliver a lasting majority.
- Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse
The party assumed its coalition would hold. Commentators across the spectrum tracked Latino, young and working-class voters as they left.
Principle 03
Go straight to the people.
Diagnosis
Commentators say Democratic candidates sounded scripted and professional while voters wanted emotion and connection. A smaller group says consultants produce one-size-fits-all ads that talk down to groups like Latino voters. Across the spectrum, critics say the party answers to donors and corporations ahead of the people it asks to vote for it.
Prescription
Cut out the middle layers. Put candidates in direct contact with voters, let them speak in their own words, and trust them to answer a question without a memo.
Themes in the study
- Generic Top-Down Messaging
A small group of voices, including the UChicago Institute of Politics and Pod Save America, say the party relies on consultants who produce one-size-fits-all ads.
- Inauthentic and Emotionally Disconnected
Commentators say Democratic candidates sounded scripted and professional while voters wanted emotion and connection.
- General Corporate Servitude & Systemic Failure
This is a catch-all for complaints that Democrats serve donors and corporations ahead of voters.
Principle 05
Trade polls for live signal.
Diagnosis
Commentators say the party misread the mood of the country. They say it trusted bad polling, assumed abortion would work as it had in 2022, underestimated Trump and refused to change course. Some point to late TV ads, including ads shown to people who had already voted, and to a party that skips honest post-mortems and repeats the strategies that lost.
Prescription
Listen to the public conversation as it happens. Track what voters and the voices they follow are saying week to week, and use it to make fast decisions. Use polls to confirm what you hear.
Themes in the study
- Complacency and Failure to Adapt
Commentators say the party misread the mood of the country.
- Failure to Learn & Adapt
Commentators say Democrats keep repeating the strategies that lost and skip an honest post-mortem.
- Inefficient Resource Allocation
Commentators say Democrats raise plenty of money and spend it poorly.
Principle 06
Counter narratives with narratives.
Diagnosis
Commentators say Democrats answered voters' complaints about prices with strong economic data and the 'Bidenomics' brand, and voters didn't see their own lives in those figures. They say the party let Republicans set the terms on inflation, immigration and crime, failed to tell anyone about the laws it passed, and left voters unsure what it stood for. An American University program calls the party 'lousy storytellers.'
Prescription
Tell the story first and cite the numbers second. Answer a misleading narrative with a better one that voters can see themselves in, and keep telling it.
Themes in the study
- Failure to Counter Opponent Narratives
Commentators, mostly on the left, say Democrats let Republicans set the terms on inflation, immigration and crime.
- Ineffective Storytelling and Campaigning
Commentators say Democrats pass laws and then fail to tell anyone about them.
- Macro Data vs. Lived Reality
Commentators say Democrats answered voters' complaints about prices with GDP growth, job numbers and the 'Bidenomics' brand.
- Undefined and Policy-Light Agenda
Commentators say voters could not tell what Democrats stood for or what they would do with power.
Principle 07
Lead with class, not category.
Diagnosis
Commentators across the spectrum say Democrats have been losing working-class voters of every race for years. They describe a party now run by and for college-educated professionals, whose language and priorities push those voters away. Far Left voices add that the party abandoned organized labor, and commentators of every leaning say it dismissed voters' complaints about the cost of living.
Prescription
Make the economic stakes the center of the message. Identity shapes how a message is heard. The message itself should be about wages, prices and who is getting ahead. Voters respond to a party that says plainly who is getting paid and who isn't.
Themes in the study
- Working-Class Abandonment
Commentators across the spectrum say Democrats have been losing working-class voters of every race for years.
- The Diploma Divide & Class Alienation
Commentators say the party is now run by and for college-educated professionals.
- Abandonment of Organized Labor
Commentators say Democrats abandoned organized labor. Far Left voices cite the administration's intervention against the rail strike and its absence from the Warrior Met picket line, and accuse union leaders tied to the party of 'business unionism'.
- Tone-Deaf Economic Disconnect
Commentators say Democrats answered voters' complaints about inflation with good macroeconomic numbers.
Principle 08
Understand identity. Don't perform it.
Diagnosis
Commentators say Democrats assumed Latino, Black, Arab and Muslim voters were as liberal as white progressives and would vote by identity. Some argue many of these voters now vote their conservative views on the economy, crime and culture. Others say the party used identity politics in place of an economic agenda, and that young voters drifted away because the party rarely showed up for them.
Prescription
Talk to specific communities about what they care about. Learn what that is, and stop assuming that a shared box on a form means a shared political view.
Themes in the study
- Identity Politics as a Cynical Strategy
Commentators argue the party used identity politics in place of an economic agenda.
- Misreading the Non-White Electorate
Commentators say Democrats assumed Latino, Black, Arab and Muslim voters were as liberal as white progressives and would vote by identity.
- Youth Alienation & Disengagement
Commentators say young voters drifted away from Democrats and many stopped voting.
Principle 09
Let voters choose their electeds.
Diagnosis
Commentators fault the party for clearing the field for Biden and skipping a real primary. They say Biden's age, approval ratings and June debate made him a drag on the ticket, and that when he withdrew late, Harris was left with a short runway and the label of a candidate voters never chose. Others say the party has no leaders who can inspire anyone.
Prescription
Hold real primaries. Candidates who win a contested race are tested and stronger for it, and voters who chose them stay invested in the result.
Themes in the study
- Flawed Nomination Process
Commentators fault the party for clearing the field for Biden and skipping a real primary.
- Biden's Unviable Candidacy
Commentators say Biden's age, low approval ratings and June debate performance made him a drag on the ticket long before he stepped aside.
- Systemic Leadership Failures
Commentators say the party lacks leaders who can inspire anyone.
Principle 10
Get in the arena.
Diagnosis
Commentators accuse Democrats of lacking the will to fight. The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart calls the party feckless, left voices say its leaders hide behind procedure, and others say they give in to Republican pressure before it arrives. MSNBC voices add that Democrats tie their own hands with layers of review and lawsuits, and on crime and immigration, commentators say the party played defense and told voters their worries were wrong.
Prescription
Pick fights and win them. Stop ceding ground by default, answer attacks directly, and show voters the party wants the job.
Themes in the study
- Feckless Political Inaction
Commentators accuse Democrats of lacking the will to fight.
- Self-Imposed Process Paralysis
Left voices, MSNBC above all, argue that Democrats have tied their own hands.
- Defensive Messaging & Voter Dismissal
Commentators say Democrats played defense on crime and immigration and let Republicans set the terms.
Principle 11
Govern visibly.
Diagnosis
Critics on the left and the right fault how Democrats governed. Left voices argue that laws like the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act were too small or too slow to show results, and that means-tested programs are too weak to earn political credit. Fox News and other right-leaning voices say Democratic administrations left government bloated, wasteful and open to fraud.
Prescription
Make delivery the argument. Where Democrats hold power, build things voters can see, finish them quickly and make sure people know who built them.
Themes in the study
- Gross Operational Mismanagement
Most of these quotes come from Fox News and other Far Right voices.
- Insufficient Scale & Poor Execution
Most of these critiques come from the left. Real Progressives argue that the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act were too small, and others say Democrats pass means-tested programs too weak to win political credit.
- Bloated & Archaic Bureaucracy
Every quote here is from Fox News. Its commentators blame Democratic and earlier administrations for overstaffed agencies, duplicated functions and paper-based systems that were never modernized.
Principle 12
Claim the future.
Diagnosis
Commentators say Democrats ran against Trump and gave voters little to vote for. MSNBC voices argue the party has become wary of technology and tied its idea of the future to sacrifice, process and bureaucracy. Real Progressives, a Far Left channel, says Democrats keep losing the 'how will you pay for it?' argument.
Prescription
Offer a future people want. Talk about abundance, new technology and a better life ahead, and make that optimism the frame before any policy detail.
Themes in the study
- Ceding the Vision of the Future
Nearly every quote here comes from MSNBC. Its commentators argue Democrats have become wary of technology and tied their idea of the future to sacrifice, process and bureaucracy.
- Absence of a Positive Vision
Voices from the left and the right make the same complaint: Democrats ran against Trump and gave voters little to vote for.
- Ceding the Narrative: The 'Pay For' Trap
All of these quotes come from Real Progressives. " argument by promising to fund programs through tax hikes on billionaires.
Keep reading
- → The study, in numbers 8,843 quotes · 258.5 hours · 118M views
- → How every theme split the spectrum Spectrum share, rank by political leaning, reach vs. volume
- → Every voice, across the spectrum Audience, political leaning and quote count for each channel
- → Every video in the study Every quote, linked back to the timestamp
- → How we built this Search, score, analyze, cluster, engage
Principle 04
Re-index on social.
Diagnosis
Left voices, led by Pod Save America, say Democrats lost the new media fight. Trump went on big non-political podcasts and reached young men there, while Democrats leaned on cable news, traditional interviews and broadcast ads. Left commentators add that the right spent years building its own media around Fox News and online creators, and Democrats never built anything like it. Right-leaning voices, meanwhile, say mainstream outlets lost their credibility.
Prescription
Go where the audience is. Show up on podcasts, livestreams, short video and audio with people who are native to those formats, and invest in Democratic-leaning creators for the long term instead of recycling TV ads.
Themes in the study
Left voices, Pod Save America above all, say the campaign lost the new media fight.
35 quotesEvery quote here comes from the Left or Far Left.
21 quotesA handful of voices say Democrats kept spending on broadcast TV and mail while voters moved to streaming and online video.
9 quotesMostly Far Right voices, led by BlazeTV and Rebel News, say the mainstream media lost credibility by acting as a partisan arm of the Democrats.
35 quotes