Democratic-aligned Latino advocacy organizations are using flawed, partisan polling that understates the erosion of Latino support, leading the party to adopt losing strategies for multiple election cycles.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "unido us is the longest serving Latino civil rights organization in this country but they have been for a whole host of reasons promulgating bad data related to the outcomes of Elections and it needs to stop and it needs to end that same report was suggesting essentially that there was very little erosion that happened with latino voters in the 2024 election that is quantifiably not true."

  21:55 Watch ↗

• "every objective analyst has looked at this data and concluded differently than what is being articulated from these Latino advocacy organizations who keep leading Democratic candidates Ates down the path of Ruin in many ways this shift which has endangered the country is a direct result of choosing partisan polling over objective data and there needs to be a reckoning..."

  23:43 Watch ↗

• "if you can't fix that it's because you're clearly being misled by the data and the reason is because these folks are much more interested in reinforcing their own pre-existing biases I'd hate to say it's about securing contracts and money and title but I've been in politics long enough to know that to follow something clearly this wrong for this long a period of time there has to be something more troubling a foot..."

  25:41 Watch ↗

Democrats' messaging about the economy failed because it contradicted the lived experience of working-class voters, who remembered being more financially stable under Trump.

• Ineffective Economic & Policy Messaging

• "lived experience is far more impactful and real than future hypotheticals as I mentioned earlier the life of and affordability of workingclass people was quantifiably demonstrably better in the first 3 years of the trumpet Administration than it was in the first three and a half four years of the Biden Administration simply affordability by just a pure affordability metric which is what your prioritization is on that maslo hierarchy of needs."

  27:41 Watch ↗

• "life was better it was more affordable economically financially under Trump than it was under Biden and Harris and yet the messaging I'm getting is Donald Trump is going to ruin the economy it's going to make it worse for you and his policies are bad for you that flies in the face of the lived experience and as a campaign professional it's extremely difficult to make that contrast work when it's what people experienced with their own understanding and own perspective of the world."

  28:38 Watch ↗

Democrats were unfairly, but consequentially, blamed by working-class voters for the prolonged economic and social damage resulting from COVID-19 policies, which voters felt were too extensive.

• "that's not the way working-class voters see this not just Latinos broadly those that do not have college degrees broadly believe that this was overdone overplayed and the damage was too extensive by the Democrats in at every level of government and that's going to last a while."

  29:48 Watch ↗

• "as Harry S Truman famously said the buck stops here the way people are feeling during the administration is something that you have to take into account for as a political professional you can't fix the problem until you you you you can't be fixing the blame until you fix the problem and the Biden Administration got the downside of everything related to co economically and the way people felt about the direction of the country."

  30:32 Watch ↗

The Democratic Party's significant pivot on key issues like immigration and economic populism came too late in the election cycle to change voter perceptions shaped by 15 years of contrary branding.

• "kamla Harris did most of the things she needed to do the problem is making the adjustment 100 days before the election is not possible to change 15 years of bad branding."

  31:26 Watch ↗

• "they have figured it out the problem is they have spent 15 years driving in the opposite direction specifically on the immigration issue telling the fastest growing segment of the Latino electorate that they aren't relatable that they don't understand them and I think now finally this course correction that comml Harris began will take root..."

  32:13 Watch ↗

The Democratic party has been in a state of denial for three consecutive election cycles (2016, 2020, 2024) about its declining support among Latino voters, refusing to acknowledge the problem and therefore failing to fix it.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "there's this denial that has set in with some of the loudest Latino advocacy organizations about what is obvious to everybody else and if we're going to believe in math and science and Truth we need to stop being persuaded by consultants and pollsters and contractors to lead us down the path of partisanship and start looking at the accurate numbers to be honest about what we all can see with our own eyes..."

  22:29 Watch ↗

• "these same organizations and these same pollsters denied that this happened in 2016 when the Democrats were saying they were going to win Florida because of the Latino vote and they lost it this is the same polling outfit that did the same thing in 2020 with the same organization saying the exact same thing they did it again again just a couple of days ago in 2024 three election Cycles in a row Democrats have lost Latino voters not just to Republicans but to Donald Trump."

  25:11 Watch ↗

Kamala Harris failed to create a distinct identity from the unpopular Biden administration, leading voters who wanted change to reject her as well.

• Flawed Candidacy & Leadership Vacuum

• "people looked back and said well who's been in charge the last four years Joe Biden and KLA Harris and she never did anything to differentiate herself he was asked multiple times what would you do differently than Biden What policies would you step away from she's like no no I you know I'm good so people were like well I don't want any more that"

  37:25 Watch ↗

• "in the National exit poll which is very interesting if you really want to do a dive you can go online it's easy to find Biden had a 58% disapproval rating Trump won 80% of those votes"

  37:45 Watch ↗

Joe Biden staying in the presidential race for too long was his biggest mistake, as it prevented Harris from having enough time to build support or a more democratic primary process from unfolding.

• Flawed Candidacy & Leadership Vacuum

• "I think when it comes to Biden though the the big knock on him that's sort of evolving is that he stayed too long right that he should have dropped out earlier and had he dropped out earlier there may have been either more time for Comm to build support or time for there to be a mini primary so they could sort of shed some of the complaints about the lack of democratic process."

  38:47 Watch ↗

• "the thing that he did to most hurt her wasn't the garbage comment it was running frankly running which he said he said he was going to be a bridge the Next Generation but the bridge never came down until you know two months ago."

  39:09 Watch ↗

Democrats are failing to recognize they have a significant and long-standing problem with working-class voters, who are explicitly signaling their departure from the party.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "Democrats have a real problem with the working class right now and it's been going on for the better part of a decade they don't believe they are but the working class is telling them very loudly we're not with you anymore."

  1:04 Watch ↗

The Democratic party has been in denial about the ongoing shift of Latino voters away from their coalition for nearly a decade.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "I think if the Republicans believe that this is some direct affirmation of the direction they've been going in for the past eight years they are missing the demographic change as much as the Democrats who have been denying it's been happening for the past 8 years."

  4:50 Watch ↗

Democrats are losing Latino voters because they fail to focus on the economic, populist, and pocketbook issues that have been the primary drivers for this electorate for decades.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "polling data for three decades now has said that economics affordability job opportunities are driving this part of the electorate and as we move further away from the immigration experience we can expect the party that focuses on these economic populist and pocketbook issues to be the beneficiary and at the moment that's the Republican Party."

  4:04 Watch ↗

The exodus of Latino voters is better understood as a departure from the Democratic party rather than an affirmative move to the Republican party, and this trend is reversible if Democrats change their approach.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "so for the moment Democrats are losing voters these youo voters I think it's a better way to characterize this Exodus as leaving the Democratic party more than it's going to the Republican party and it is absolutely reversible."

  7:24 Watch ↗

Democrats were perceived by working-class Latinos as the party that kept the economy closed during COVID-19, limiting their income and opportunities while they were still exposed to the virus as essential workers.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "it was the Democrats and this again I'm not saying I agree with this I'm saying I understand this rationale the Democrats were the ones that were keeping the economy closed and limiting opportunities limiting income these were not workers that were necessarily getting the same paychecks the same government amounts of money the same loans that didn't need to be repaid but they had to expose their family to this virus."

  9:24 Watch ↗

Democrats misjudge working-class priorities by assuming abstract concerns like 'democracy under threat' or racism should outweigh immediate, tangible economic needs like paying rent and feeding children.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "the idea that democracy is under a threat misogyny exists racism is real are the luxuries of those people that don't have to worry about the handt mouth existence of the fastest growing segment of our working class."

  12:22 Watch ↗

Democrats failed to prevent or message around key economic factors that worsened the quality of life for working-class people, such as tripling interest rates and high inflation, which made the Trump years seem better by comparison.

• Flawed Policy Design & Unpopular Agenda

• "it's quantifiably true to say that the quality of life and the affordability of life for the first three years anyway under Donald Trump was far better than those under Joe Biden that's just not debatable for working-class people. interest rates tripled under Joe Biden in an industry where one in five Latino men work in the construction industry that's a gut punch to the Latino economy."

  12:52 Watch ↗

The Democratic party's messaging fails because it treats Latinos as a monolithic group, ignoring the vast political differences between later-generation, US-born Latinos and recent immigrants.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "this movement is it coincides almost perfectly with the explosion of later generation us-born Latinos who don't have that same ethnic tie so for us to correlate the third and fourth generation you know Mexican American who's never spoken Spanish with that of the recently migrated Venezuelan who speaks only Spanish and can't draw the correlation between the two is a failing on our side to articulate the differences between these two people who have tectonically different political perspectives."

  15:39 Watch ↗

Democrats operate with an outdated understanding of non-white voters, viewing them through a traditional 'minority' lens instead of recognizing the emergence of a multi-ethnic working class driven by class and economic populism.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "when both parties are largely viewing non-white voters as a traditional minority the way that we have known them for the better part of 250 years in this country we're witnessing a real challenge to our basic language about how we understand non-white voters to be and that again it puts both parties in a particular predicament."

  6:57 Watch ↗

The Democratic coalition, increasingly dominated by college-educated individuals, suffers from a profound inability to relate to or understand the daily economic realities of non-college-educated, paycheck-to-paycheck workers.

• Elitist Culture & 'Woke' Alienation

• "I think as this diploma divide continues to separate the college educated from the non-college educated the Two Worlds the two realities of what it means to be a paycheck to paycheck person to be a non-college educated laborer and worker the distance of understanding becomes universe is apart and I think that's so much of why there's this inability to relate to people who have these economic circumstances..."

  13:32 Watch ↗

Democrats are failing to recognize that their policies, particularly on public safety, are unpopular and being rejected by voters even in traditionally liberal areas.

• Flawed Policy Design & Unpopular Agenda

• "will the Democrats realize and address the issue that some of their policies are disliked well I think the voters are speaking of those policies even in the liberal Bay area where I live in Oakland you're seeing the mayor recalled and the district attorney recalled and that's definitely a push back on policies involving on Public Safety."

  43:46 Watch ↗

Democrats misjudged voter priorities, focusing on issues like abortion rights while a larger percentage of the electorate was more concerned with immediate economic issues like the cost of food and gas.

• "I saw Kaiser Family Foundation they do good polling and they said you know for they were polling on abortion and 45% of the people said abortion rights was a very important issue to them but 63% or something said the high price of food was much more important and gas was higher than that and cost gener the cost of living so you know your daily life is"

  36:57 Watch ↗

The Democratic party fails to conduct meaningful self-assessment after losses, choosing instead to believe their 'product' is fine, which prevents them from making necessary changes.

• Internal Party Dysfunction & Organizational Decay

• "in 2016 after Hillary Clinton's loss there was this whole thing we're going to do post-mortems the Democratic party is going to do a full you know round of introspection and yes autopsies we're going to do the whole thing and like I've never seen it you know like I don't think that they did I think that maybe they got some wins after that and thought Oh no the product is fine we're going to keep making it and selling it like like we have been."

  44:09 Watch ↗

The Democratic campaign's late performance, even if perceived as strong, was irrelevant because voters who decided late still broke for Trump, indicating a fundamental rejection of the Democratic ticket.

• Flawed Candidacy & Leadership Vacuum

• "I think the conventional wisdom right was Harris had a good last week yeah Trump had a bad last week if you look at how did people who decided to vote in the last week decide Trump won those voters and then they asked if you decided in the last few days how did you vote Trump won those voters too so so nothing matters"

  39:46 Watch ↗

Democrats are willfully ignoring voters who are explicitly and loudly stating their top concerns are economic issues and immigration, leading to voter alienation.

• Flawed Strategy & Tactical Incompetence
• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "look voters are not like hiding things like they're telling you what's important it's the cost of groceries and gas and illegal immigration and they are yelling it from the rooftops and yet they're you know everyone goes well gosh I just don't know why they don't like us and you're like what we're trying to tell you so um whether or not they will they'll listen I'm you know I'm not as hopeful as I was in 2016"

  44:53 Watch ↗

The Democratic campaign's economic message was out of touch, dismissing voters' real-life struggles with rising costs by pointing to positive macroeconomic data.

• Ineffective Economic & Policy Messaging

• "it's not satisfactory to a voter who's struggling to make end meet struggling to afford Rising housing costs and afford Rising gas pris to say hey the numbers say it's good you got nothing to worry about we've gotten past the inflation all is good and that's all that they really had to talk about."

  46:10 Watch ↗

Kamala Harris failed to connect emotionally with voters by not speaking from the heart and clearly articulating what she would do for them, leaving a void for her opponent to fill.

• Ineffective Economic & Policy Messaging
• Flawed Candidacy & Leadership Vacuum

• "you can't be too clever you know I don't want to rock the boat too much you're running for president you got to say what you're going to do you got to look people in the eye when they're telling you they're hurting you got to speak from the heart and say Here's what I'm going to want to do for you and when you don't do that hey you're not going to win those voters you need to win and you're leaving a big void for your opponent to come in and swoop those voters up for him."

  47:00 Watch ↗

The election loss was due to unpopular policies, not the candidate's race or gender; a white male candidate with the same platform would also have lost.

• Internal Party Dysfunction & Organizational Decay

• "if KL Harris was a white guy she still would have lost like yes is there racism and sexism sure yeah but and I'm not saying that that's not deplorable but what I'm saying is if KLA Harris was Carl Harris and was a white guy still would have lost the people don't want to buy what you're selling at the end of the day."

  48:42 Watch ↗

Blaming the loss on racism and sexism is a strategic error that prevents the Democratic party from diagnosing and fixing its core problem: unpopular policies.

• Internal Party Dysfunction & Organizational Decay

• "I think ultimately the Democrats have the wrong policies and the problem with chalking it up to not that you did the problem with chalking it up to racism sexism is is you don't get to the real problem and so next time you go oh well I'll just run a White Guy saying the same stuff and you're going to lose again."

  49:22 Watch ↗

Democratic messaging about future policy benefits, such as housing aid and tuition relief, was ineffective because it prompted voters to question why the party hadn't already delivered on those promises while in power.

• Ineffective Economic & Policy Messaging

• "the Democratic nominee talked about helping families afford to buy houses the Democratic nominee was part of an Administration that helped relieve the burden of tuition debt off the backs of millions of individual students …"

  26:54 Watch ↗

• "well kamla Harris is going to do everything good the natural reaction is why didn't they do that why haven't they done that why is recent memory for me that I experienced with my own understanding my own life with my own eyes and my own ears not telling me that what you're uh saying is true."

  28:18 Watch ↗

Kamala Harris ran a 'policy-light' campaign that lacked substantive, well-developed plans, especially on difficult issues.

• Ineffective Economic & Policy Messaging

• "one of the criticisms of KLA Harris as a candidate right was that it was a kind of a PO light campaign there wasn't a lot of really super developed plans out there especially on some of the thornier questions."

  45:21 Watch ↗

The Democrats' one developed economic plan, focused on price gouging, was based on bad ideas that would have ultimately hurt consumers by raising costs and reducing supply.

• Flawed Policy Design & Unpopular Agenda

• "and even the one real issue that she talked about that was a really developed plan on price gouging well I wrote about in my book if you kind of go through really the issue of price gouging it's a lot of bad ideas that are going to drive up costs and drive down the availability of Supply in grocery stores so even the one kind of develop plan wouldn't really help your issue of high costs."

  46:35 Watch ↗

Democrats may have failed to effectively remind Latino voters of Donald Trump's specific actions that harmed their community, such as his disastrous handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Neglected Coalition & Demographic Collapse

• "on the pandemic alone I know for some people it seems like a long time ago but Donald Trump as president lied to the country about what he already knew about the threat of covid-19 Latinos were disproportionately burdened by both risk as essential workers and by death and illness …"

  7:57 Watch ↗