Despite current strong economic indicators (low unemployment, strong wage growth, controlled inflation), President Biden is not receiving public credit for the economy, contributing to his relative unpopularity.

• "if you were to ask pretty much every macroeconomist in the United States I think they would probably say that yes we are in an incredibly strong economy you know unemployment is low wage growth has been especially strong at lower and middle income levels and and inflation is starting to come under control"

  Original video no longer public

• "is Biden getting credit for a good economy? no he is not"

  Original video no longer public

• "Biden has been a relatively unpopular president despite the fact that the …"

  Original video no longer public

(Vavi's view) Despite increased partisanship, economic performance (specifically GDP growth in the first half of an election year) remains the most reliable single predictor of election outcomes, historically being correct roughly 70% of the time, and its proportional impact remains significant in close elections.

• "if your life depended on predicting the outcome of the next election and getting it right between the two political parties and you could only know one piece of what would you want to know what I would want to know is the change in GDP between January and June of the election year if you know the growth rate you'll be right roughly seven out of 10 times"

  Original video no longer public

• "vavi says yes today there are fewer voters who might be persuaded by the economy but she says because our elections have become so close the proportional impact of the economy is still the same"

  Original video no longer public

• "vavi's claim isn't that economic performance is foolproof but that it gets you there 70% of the time"

  Original video no longer public

The economic downturn of the early 1990s, characterized by recession and a 'jobless recovery,' was the primary factor in George H.W. Bush's defeat in 1992, despite his initial high approval ratings post-Gulf War.

• "a recession was taking hold employment today nearly half a million Americans without jobs filed new claims for unemployment benefits"

  Original video no longer public

• "Bush's approval ratings dropped Like a Rock by the beginning of 1992 he was in the low 40s"

  Original video no longer public

• "… was termed a jobless recovery in October of 1992 just a month before the election 92% of respondents to an ABC News poll described the economic conditions as not so good or poor"

  Original video no longer public

Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign effectively capitalized on the prevailing economic discontent by 'hammering home his economic message,' which was a key contributor to his victory.

• "right after Clinton hammered home his economic message at that Year's Democratic Convention Bush hit a term low of 29% approval"

  Original video no longer public

• "it was the economy stupid in 1992 that played a key role in Clinton's success"

  Original video no longer public

The 1992 Clinton campaign successfully recognized and leveraged voter dissatisfaction with the slow economic recovery, even when objective economic numbers showed growth.

• "what the Clinton campaign recognized is that yes the economy was slowly growing but it wasn't growing enough it wasn't clear that things were better and so I think they saw that as an advantage"

  Original video no longer public

• "voters didn't feel a lot of that recovery"

  Original video no longer public

The Clinton campaign's strategy involved directly attacking the incumbent (George H.W. Bush) on his administration's economic performance.

• "why can't we attack George Bush why can't we talk about the lowest economic growth in the last 50 years"

  Original video no longer public

• "the idea was to home in on the areas where Bush was perceived to be the weakest and the campaign did just that"

  Original video no longer public

The Clinton campaign framed the 1992 election as a 'change election' to capitalize on public desire for a new direction after 12 years of Republican rule.

• "he knew that this was in his words a change election we' had 12 years of Republican rule Governor Clinton was the first baby boomer non World War II veteran we were were trying to project that he's different he's not like the rest of the politicians that you saw because we were pretty confident that the country was looking for a different direction"

  Original video no longer public

• "he chose those three messages change versus more of the same the economy stupid and don't forget about Healthcare"

  Original video no longer public

President Biden has remained relatively unpopular despite strong economic performance during his tenure.

• "Biden has been a relatively unpopular president despite the fact that the economic performance under Biden has been very strong"

  Original video no longer public

• "Biden's approval rating has stayed in the high 30s and low 40s for much of his tenure"

  Original video no longer public

The trend of presidents not receiving credit for strong economic performance predates Biden, as evidenced by similar unpopularity for President Trump despite strong economic indicators. This suggests a broader shift in how voters assess presidents.

• "this trend predates Biden if you were to get into a time machine and go back to 2019 what you would find is that then president Trump was also deeply unpopular despite presiding over similarly kind of strong economic performance"

  Original video no longer public

• "it's not just that Biden in a post pandemic sort of racked by inflation kind of world isn't getting credit for strong economic performance it's the fact that his predecessor was not getting credit for you know comparatively strong economic performance either"

  Original video no longer public

The traditional model of partisanship, based on shared values, is being replaced by a more 'tribal' quality, driven by fundamental differences in party visions and the increasing salience of 'person-based' or cultural issues like immigration and abortion since 2016.

• "this kind of traditional model of how we think about what it means to be a a partisan is looking less and less like an expression of sort of values that people have they're beginning to take on a much more kind of tribal kind of quality"

  Original video no longer public

• "people's partisanship has in some way become more Salient to them maybe because the kinds of Worlds that the two parties want to build are very very different now the kinds of things we're fighting over these person-based issues like immigration like a religious test to enter the country abortion those issues are the ones that are this new dimension of conflict since 2016"

  Original video no longer public

Political polarization has intensified significantly, with over half of both Republicans and Democrats now viewing the opposing party as 'very unfavorable,' a substantial increase from 1994. This reduces voters' willingness to split tickets or change their minds, making large swings in presidential approval unlikely.

• "in 1994 Pew found that roughly 20% of Republicans and Democrats viewed the other party as very unfavorable now it's more than half of both Republicans and Democrats who feel that way"

  Original video no longer public

• "that kind of change May well not be possible today because there aren't enough voters willing to change their minds"

  Original video no longer public

(Hris's counter-argument to Vavi) It is an open question whether the remaining 'marginal independent unaffiliated voters' are primarily driven by economic performance, as their views are diverse and other issues might ultimately become more salient in their vote choice.

• "HRI isn't so sure that perspective is premised in the idea that these folks who don't have these kind of really deep-seated kind of virent sort of partisan attachments are people who are primarily making their vote choice on the basis of economic performance that I think is an open question"

  Original video no longer public

• "he also says that those unaligned voters have views that crisscross the political spectrum and that the issue that ultimately Rises to the top may not be the economy"

  Original video no longer public

Despite strong macroeconomic performance, such as significant job growth, the public's direct experience with inflation, like increased grocery bills, creates a critical perception of the economy.

• "look at your grocery bill when you go for groceries now you're paying three times what you paid two years ago"

  Original video no longer public

• "now our economy is literally the Envy of the world 15 million new jobs in just 3 years record a record"

  Original video no longer public

Despite robust macroeconomic performance (e.g., 15 million new jobs, economy 'envy of the world'), the public's perception of the economy is negatively impacted by microeconomic realities such as significantly higher grocery bills, presenting a challenge for the incumbent party (Democrats).

• "look at your grocery bill when you go for groceries now you're paying three times what you paid two years ago"

  Original video no longer public

• "now our economy is literally the Envy of the world 15 million new jobs in just 3 years record a record"

  Original video no longer public

There is an ongoing debate about whether the economy still plays its historical 'starring role' in determining election outcomes, suggesting a potential fundamental shift in electoral politics.

• "whether it's still as true as it was back then is at least Up For Debate"

  Original video no longer public

• "if the economy no longer plays such a starring role in determining elections"

  Original video no longer public

The historical premise that the economy is the primary determinant of election outcomes ('the economy, stupid') is currently a subject of debate.

• "whether it's still as true as it was back then is at least Up For Debate"

  Original video no longer public

• "if the economy no longer plays such a starring role in determining elections that means politicians themselves May Focus Less on it"

  Original video no longer public

If the economy's influence on elections diminishes, politicians (including Democrats) may strategically shift their focus away from unifying economic issues towards more divisive topics, potentially exacerbating political polarization.

• "if the economy no longer plays such a starring role in determining elections that means politicians themselves May Focus Less on it less on something that has the possibility to unite people a thriving economy and more on the things that divide us"

  Original video no longer public

• "so maybe we should all hope that it is still the economy …"

  Original video no longer public

(HRI's view) Intensifying partisanship means voters now primarily assess candidates through a partisan lens rather than based on economic performance, suggesting the traditional 'economy, stupid' adage is less relevant, as the few remaining unaligned voters may not primarily vote on economic issues.

• "… has looked at the data on intensifying partisanship over the last 30 years and concluded that voters now assess candidates through the lens of partisan ship instead of assessing them on the basis of their economic performance in his estimation it's the economy stupid doesn't ring so true anymore"

  Original video no longer public

• "… s an open question there may be some numbers from some political scientist somewhere that you can point to that would suggest yes sort of these Vanishing kind of like marginal independent unaffiliated voters are hyper sensitive to things like inflation or things like the unemployment rate but he also says that those unaligned voters have views that crisscross the political spectrum and that the issue that ultimately Rises to the top may not be the economy"

  Original video no longer public

A core element of the Clinton campaign's communication strategy was simplicity, repetition, and relevance, focusing on a few key messages.

• "on a whiteboard in the war room it's clearly spelled out in capital letters rules change versus more of the same the economy stupid and don't forget about Healthcare stay focused talk about things that are matter to people"

  Original video no longer public

• "… it's not our job to be the smartest people in the room it's our job to be the most basic fundamental repetitive people in the room and so I had to remind people don't be smart be repetitive"

  Original video no longer public

(Vavi's view) Despite increased partisanship, economic performance (specifically GDP growth in the first half of an election year) remains a strong predictor of election outcomes, correctly predicting results roughly 70% of the time. While fewer voters are persuadable by the economy, its proportional impact is still significant due to increasingly close elections.

• "… what I would want to know is the change in GDP between January and June of the election year if you know the growth rate you'll be right roughly seven out of 10 times"

  Original video no longer public

• "vavi says yes today there are fewer voters who might be persuaded by the economy but she says because our elections have become so close the proportional impact of the economy is still the same"

  Original video no longer public

Policymakers and administration officials, including those currently in power, remain firmly convinced that presidents are held accountable by the electorate for everyday economic indicators like the price of eggs and gas.

• "I will say anecdotally that based on my conversations with policy makers people in the administration people in previous administrations they are all still firmly convinced you know you need to be paying attention to the price of eggs and price of gas if you're president of the United States because those are things for which the electorate will hold you accountable."

  Original video no longer public

The Clinton campaign deliberately chose to prioritize a limited set of issues (economy, healthcare, and 'change') over a broader range of legitimate topics, understanding that focus was crucial for effective political communication.

• "he chose those three messages change versus more of the same the economy stupid and don't forget about Healthcare to keep his staff on task the brevity was the point you know people come say well you need to talk about historic preservation other people come in and say we need to talk more about the environment and these all very legitimate things that a presidential campaign can talk about but you got to remember to choose to talk about one thing is also to choose not to talk about another thing and that's the hardest concept to get across in political Communications"

  Original video no longer public

The current disconnect between a strong economy and President Biden's lack of public credit challenges established political science theories regarding the direct influence of economic conditions on voter preferences and election outcomes, prompting a re-evaluation of these tenets within the Democratic Party and political analysis circles.

• "This has been a point of a lot of consternation I think for people in the Biden Camp uh and has occasioned I think a lot of rethinking about some of the leld tenets that political scientists have about the factors that shape political preferences and the factors that shake elections"

  Original video no longer public

There is a perceived disconnect between strong macroeconomic performance (e.g., job growth, global standing) and the public's negative perception of their personal economic situation (e.g., high grocery bills).

• "look at your grocery bill when you go for groceries now you're paying three times what you paid two years ago now our economy is literally the Envy of the world 15 million new jobs in just 3 years record a record"

  Original video no longer public

The continued primacy of the economy as the determining factor in elections is debatable, and a decline in its importance would signify a major shift in electoral politics, potentially leading politicians to focus on divisive issues rather than unifying economic prosperity.

• "but whether it's still as true as it was back then is at least Up For Debate and if it's not that would signify a pretty big change in electoral politics if the economy no longer plays such a starring role in determining elections that means politicians themselves May Focus Less on it less on something that has the possibility to unite people a thriving economy and more on the things that divide us"

  Original video no longer public

Factors contributing to Biden's unpopularity, despite strong economic performance, include rising prices (inflation) and high borrowing costs during the initial years of his presidency.

• "some of this is probably explained by prices rising much faster than wag for the first 2 years of his presidency and the decades high level of borrowing costs"

  Original video no longer public

(Hris's view) Voters increasingly assess candidates through the lens of partisanship rather than economic performance, suggesting the traditional 'economy, stupid' adage is less relevant today.

• "Hris has looked at the data on intensifying partisanship over the last 30 years and concluded that voters now assess candidates through the lens of partisan ship instead of assessing them on the basis of their economic performance in his estimation it's the economy stupid doesn't ring so true anymore"

  Original video no longer public

For the 2024 election, a 3% GDP growth rate in the first half of the year would historically favor the incumbent Democratic party, but the current slowing growth (1.6% in Q1 2024) makes this outcome uncertain.

• "vavi says it still depends on growth in the first half of this year I would come down with the weight of History history which is that if we have 3% growth that is more likely than not going to produce a win for the incumbent party and with GDP growth slowing to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024 that could be a big if"

  Original video no longer public

Democratic policymakers (and those in previous administrations) remain firmly convinced that a president's electoral success hinges on public perception of basic economic indicators like the price of eggs and gas, as the electorate holds them accountable for these costs.

• "policy makers people in the administration people in previous administrations they are all still firmly convinced you know you need to be paying attention to the price of eggs and price of gas if you're president of the United States because those are things for which the electorate will hold you accountable"

  Original video no longer public

There is an ongoing debate about whether the economy still holds its traditional 'starring role' in determining election outcomes, suggesting a potential significant shift in electoral politics.

• "but whether it's still as true as it was back then is at least Up For Debate and if it's not that would signify a pretty big change in electoral politics if the economy no longer plays such a starring role in determining elections"

  Original video no longer public

If the economy's importance in elections diminishes, politicians may shift their focus away from economic issues, which have the potential to unite people, towards more divisive topics.

• "that means politicians themselves May Focus Less on it less on something that has the possibility to unite people a thriving economy and more on the things that divide us"

  Original video no longer public

Policymakers and individuals within current and previous administrations (implicitly including those associated with the Democratic Party's 'economy, stupid' mantra) remain firmly convinced that presidents must prioritize and are held accountable by the electorate for everyday economic indicators like the price of eggs and gas.

• "I will say anecdotally that based on my conversations with policy makers people in the administration people in previous administrations they are all still firmly convinced you know you need to be paying attention to the price of eggs and price of gas if you're president of the United States because those are things for which the electorate will hold you accountable"

  Original video no longer public

Despite strong economic performance under his administration, President Biden has remained relatively unpopular, with approval ratings consistently in the high 30s and low 40s.

• "Biden has been a relatively unpopular president despite the fact that the economic performance under Biden has been very strong Biden's approval rating has stayed in the high 30s and low 40s for much of his tenure"

  Original video no longer public

Policymakers, including those in current and previous administrations, remain firmly convinced that presidents must prioritize everyday economic indicators like the price of eggs and gas, as the electorate holds them accountable for these costs.

• "based on my conversations with policy makers people in the administration people in previous administrations they are all still firmly convinced you know you need to be paying attention to the price of eggs and price of gas if you're president of the United States because those are things for which the electorate will hold you accountable"

  Original video no longer public

There is an ongoing debate about whether the economy still plays as dominant a role in determining election outcomes as it did historically, and if its influence has diminished, it would signify a major shift in electoral politics.

• "but whether it's still as true as it was back then is at least Up For Debate and if it's not that would signify a pretty big change in electoral politics if the economy no longer plays such a starring role in determining elections"

  Original video no longer public

Economic performance, specifically GDP growth in the first half of an election year, remains the most reliable predictor of election outcomes, being accurate roughly 70% of the time (Vavi's view).

• "what I would want to know is the change in GDP between January and June of the election year if you know the growth rate you'll be right roughly seven out of 10 times"

  Original video no longer public

If the economy's central role in elections diminishes, politicians may shift their focus away from unifying economic issues towards more divisive topics, potentially increasing political polarization.

• "if the economy no longer plays such a starring role in determining elections that means politicians themselves May Focus Less on it less on something that has the possibility to unite people a thriving economy and more on the things that divide us"

  Original video no longer public

President Biden has maintained relatively low approval ratings (high 30s and low 40s) throughout much of his tenure, despite strong economic performance during his presidency.

• "Biden has been a relatively unpopular president despite the fact that the economic performance under Biden has been very strong Biden's approval rating has stayed in the high 30s and low 40s for much of his tenure"

  Original video no longer public

The traditional model of partisanship, based on shared values, is eroding and being replaced by a more tribalistic quality in political alignment.

• "this kind of traditional model of how we think about what it means to be a a partisan is looking less and less like an expression of sort of values that people have they're beginning to take on a much more kind of tribal kind of quality"

  Original video no longer public

The rise in political tribalism is fueled by the increasingly divergent visions of the two major parties and a heightened focus on 'person-based' issues such as immigration and abortion, which have become new dimensions of conflict since 2016.

• "the kinds of Worlds that the two parties want to build are very very different now the kinds of things we're fighting over these person-based issues like immigration like a religious test to enter the country abortion those issues are the ones that are this new dimension of conflict since 2016"

  Original video no longer public

The level of animosity between Republicans and Democrats has significantly increased, with over half of each party now viewing the other as 'very unfavorable,' a substantial rise from approximately 20% in 1994.

• "in 1994 Pew found that roughly 20% of Republicans and Democrats viewed the other party as very unfavorable now it's more than half of both Republicans and Democrats who feel that way"

  Original video no longer public

Voters are increasingly unwilling to 'split their ticket' or change their minds across party lines, making large fluctuations in presidential approval ratings, as seen in past decades, less likely today.

• "that kind of change May well not be possible today because there aren't enough voters willing to change their minds"

  Original video no longer public

Voters increasingly assess candidates through a partisan lens rather than primarily based on economic performance, suggesting that the traditional 'it's the economy, stupid' adage is less relevant (Hris's view).

• "voters now assess candidates through the lens of partisan ship instead of assessing them on the basis of their economic performance in his estimation it's the economy stupid doesn't ring so true anymore"

  Original video no longer public

While fewer voters may be persuaded by the economy due to increased partisanship, the proportional impact of economic performance on election outcomes remains significant because elections have become very close (Vavi's nuanced view).

• "today there are fewer voters who might be persuaded by the economy but she says because our elections have become so close the proportional impact of the economy is still the same"

  Original video no longer public

The debate over the primacy of economic performance in elections is unsettled, with recent studies suggesting a breakdown in the traditional relationship between macroeconomic performance and electoral outcomes, contrasting with decades of scholarship emphasizing economic conditions.

• "the debate over whether it's still the economy stupid isn't settled there have been many studies that are consistent with a breakdown in the traditional relationship between macroeconomic performance and electoral outcomes but you know that's that's pushing against Decades of not just received wisdom but also careful scholarship that showed we need to be concerned about economic conditions"

  Original video no longer public

The standard expectation is that the Biden Administration would gain support from otherwise unaffiliated voters based on the strength of economic performance.

• "the standard interpretation is that the Biden Administration would pick up some of those otherwise unaffiliated voters on the strength of economic performance"

  Original video no longer public

Historically, 3% GDP growth is more likely than not to result in a win for the incumbent party.

• "if we have 3% growth that is more likely than not going to produce a win for the incumbent party"

  Original video no longer public

The slowing GDP growth to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024 makes it less likely for the incumbent party (Biden administration) to secure a win based on economic performance.

• "with GDP growth slowing to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024 that could be a big if"

  Original video no longer public

Policymakers and administration officials maintain a strong belief that the electorate holds the President directly accountable for common economic indicators like the price of consumer goods.

• "they are all still firmly convinced you know you need to be paying attention to the price of eggs and price of gas if you're president of the United States because those are things for which the electorate will hold you accountable"

  Original video no longer public

The current economy is characterized by strong performance, including substantial job growth, which is presented as a point of national pride.

• "our economy is literally the Envy of the world 15 million new jobs in just 3 years record a record"

  Original video no longer public

A diminished role for the economy in elections could lead politicians to shift focus from unifying economic issues to more divisive topics.

• "if the economy no longer plays such a starring role in determining elections that means politicians themselves May Focus Less on it less on something that has the possibility to unite people a thriving economy and more on the things that divide us"

  Original video no longer public

While fewer voters may be swayed by the economy, its proportional impact on close elections remains significant (Vavi's view).

• "vavi says yes today there are fewer voters who might be persuaded by the economy but she says because our elections have become so close the proportional impact of the economy is still the same"

  Original video no longer public

President Biden has maintained relatively low approval ratings (high 30s, low 40s) throughout much of his tenure, despite strong economic performance during his presidency.

• "Biden has been a relatively unpopular president despite the fact that the economic performance under Biden has been very strong Biden's approval rating has stayed in the high 30s and low 40s for much of his tenure"

  Original video no longer public

The traditional model of partisanship, based on shared values, is being replaced by a more tribalistic quality.

• "this kind of traditional model of how we think about what it means to be a a partisan is looking less and less like an expression of sort of values that people have they're beginning to take on a much more kind of tribal kind of quality"

  Original video no longer public

The increasing tribalism in partisanship is driven by the starkly different visions of the two parties and the prominence of 'person-based' issues like immigration and abortion since 2016.

• "the kinds of Worlds that the two parties want to build are very very different now the kinds of things we're fighting over these person-based issues like immigration like a religious test to enter the country abortion those issues are the ones that are this new dimension of conflict since 2016"

  Original video no longer public

Unfavorable views of the opposing party have significantly increased among both Democrats and Republicans since 1994, with more than half of each party now viewing the other as 'very unfavorable'.

• "in 1994 Pew found that roughly 20% of Republicans and Democrats viewed the other party as very unfavorable now it's more than half of both Republicans and Democrats who feel that way"

  Original video no longer public

Significant shifts in presidential approval ratings, like those seen in the past (e.g., George H.W. Bush), are unlikely today due to fewer voters being willing to change their minds.

• "that kind of change May well not be possible today because there aren't enough voters willing to change their minds"

  Original video no longer public

Voters increasingly prioritize partisanship over economic performance when evaluating candidates, suggesting the traditional 'economy, stupid' adage is less relevant (HRI's view).

• "voters now assess candidates through the lens of partisan ship instead of assessing them on the basis of their economic performance in his estimation it's the economy stupid doesn't ring so true anymore"

  Original video no longer public

Economic performance, specifically GDP growth in the first half of an election year, remains a strong predictor of election outcomes, being accurate roughly 70% of the time (Vavi's view).

• "what I would want to know is the change in GDP between January and June of the election year if you know the growth rate you'll be right roughly seven out of 10 times"

  Original video no longer public

The Biden administration's electoral success in 2024 is conventionally expected to rely on attracting unaffiliated voters through strong economic performance.

• "the standard interpretation is that the Biden Administration would pick up some of those otherwise unaffiliated voters on the strength of economic performance"

  Original video no longer public

Historically, 3% GDP growth in an election year is highly likely to result in a win for the incumbent party.

• "I would come down with the weight of History history which is that if we have 3% growth that is more likely than not going to produce a win for the incumbent party"

  Original video no longer public

The disconnect between strong economic performance and presidential approval (or lack of credit) is a broader trend that predates Biden, also affecting former President Trump, suggesting it's not unique to Biden's post-pandemic context.

• "this trend predates Biden if you were to get into a time machine and go back to 2019 what you would find is that then president Trump was also deeply unpopular despite presiding over similarly kind of strong economic performance … it's not just that Biden … isn't getting credit for strong economic performance it's the fact that his predecessor was not getting credit for you know comparatively strong economic performance either"

  Original video no longer public

Partisanship has become more tribal and salient, driven by 'person-based issues' like immigration and abortion, leading to increased unfavorability between parties and a reduced willingness of voters to change their minds or split tickets.

• "this kind of traditional model of how we think about what it means to be a a partisan is looking less and less like an expression of sort of values that people have they're beginning to take on a much more kind of tribal kind of quality … people's partisanship has in some way become more Salient to them maybe because the kinds of Worlds that the two parties want to build are very very different now the kinds of things we're fighting over these person-based issues like immigration like a religious test to enter the country abortion those issues are the ones that are this new dimension of conflict since 2016 … there aren't enough voters willing to change their minds"

  Original video no longer public

It is desirable for the economy to remain the primary electoral driver, as this encourages politicians to focus on unifying issues of prosperity rather than divisive topics.

• "so maybe we should all hope that it is still the economy …"

  Original video no longer public

The trend of presidents not receiving credit for strong economic performance predates Biden, as evidenced by Trump's similar unpopularity despite good economic conditions.

• "HRI says this trend predates Biden if you were to get into a time machine and go back to 2019 what you would find is that then president Trump was also deeply unpopular despite presiding over similarly kind of strong economic performance … it's not just that Biden … isn't getting credit for strong economic performance it's the fact that his predecessor was not getting credit for"

  Original video no longer public

For the theory of economic voting to be validated in the 2024 election, the Biden Administration would need to win over otherwise unaffiliated voters based on the strength of economic performance; however, while 3% GDP growth historically favors an incumbent, current 2024 Q1 growth (1.6%) makes this outcome uncertain.

• "the standard interpretation is that the Biden Administration would pick up some of those otherwise unaffiliated voters on the strength of economic performance"

  Original video no longer public

• "if we have 3% growth that is more likely than not going to produce a win for the incumbent party and with GDP growth slowing to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024 that could be a big if"

  Original video no longer public

It is an open question whether the diminishing number of independent/unaffiliated voters, who are sensitive to economic factors, are still the primary drivers of election outcomes, as their views often crisscross the political spectrum and other issues might take precedence (Hris's counter-argument).

• "HRI isn't so sure that perspective is premised in the idea that these folks who don't have these kind of really deep-seated kind of virent sort of partisan attachments are people who are primarily making their vote choice on the basis of economic performance that I think is an open question"

  Original video no longer public

• "the issue that ultimately Rises to the top may not be the economy"

  Original video no longer public

Beyond the economy, Bill Clinton's exceptional campaigning ability and the public's desire for 'change' after multiple Republican terms were also significant, albeit secondary, factors in his 1992 electoral success.

• "it's hard to say the economy was the only Factor working against Bush I would not discount Bill Clinton as a campaigner some people are exceptional the connection to people right is exceptional …"

  Original video no longer public

• "… there was also the change Factor we've had Reagan and 80 Reagan in ' 84 George H W bush in ' 88 that's going to be the fourth Republican term so all of those things are important but the the economy is a more than a bit player in this play"

  Original video no longer public

Biden's low approval, despite strong economic indicators, is partly attributed to rising prices and high borrowing costs during the first two years of his presidency.

• "some of this is probably explained by prices rising much faster than wag for the first 2 years of his presidency and the decades high level of borrowing costs"

  Original video no longer public

The disconnect between strong economic performance and presidential unpopularity (observed with Biden) is partly attributed to rising prices and high borrowing costs during the first two years of his presidency, but also reflects a broader trend that predates his administration, as seen with former President Trump.

• "Some of this is probably explained by prices rising much faster than wag for the first 2 years of his presidency and the decades high level of borrowing costs but HRI says this trend predates Biden if you were to get into a time machine and go back to 2019 what you would find is that then president Trump was also deeply unpopular despite presiding over similarly kind of strong economic performance"

  Original video no longer public

There is a public perception of significant increases in everyday costs, such as grocery bills, leading to negative consumer sentiment.

• "look at your grocery bill when you go for groceries now you're paying three times what you paid two years ago"

  Original video no longer public

Rising prices and high borrowing costs during the first two years of Biden's presidency likely contributed to his unpopularity.

• "Some of this is probably explained by prices rising much faster than wag for the first 2 years of his presidency and the decades high level of borrowing costs"

  Original video no longer public